USF's (Very Slim) Shot at an NCAA Tournament Appearance

By now, you've probably noticed USF's uncharacteristic success on the hardwood. The Bulls have made routine business of winning conference games that they would typically be blown out of. Their first conference game was a three point loss to then-9th ranked Connecticut, showing that the Bulls may have some life in them. Their wins, though, are the more impressive factor. USF grabbed its first-ever regular season win over Villanova in Philadelphia in blowout form, and they came home to scratch out a close win over #24 Seton Hall before obliterating St. John's, another team who has made a habit of beating the Bulls. They went away to beat down DePaul this weekend, and are now sitting on a 5-2 conference record.

Many fans are already looking ahead to watching USF in the postseason. You've probably seen my tracking of USF's season on twitter with #TheQuestFor16. But anyone who has looked at USF's conference schedule can see that the Bulls still haven't seen their real competition. The guys at V5 have made a point to tell Bulls fans to hold up a bit. They're about to travel to Top-20 ranked Marquette, and they've still got games against Syracuse, Louisville, Georgetown, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and West Virginia. And it's not likely that the Bulls stay in third place in the conference for long. But the beauty of playing in a conference like this is the championship tournament, where everybody's in. You'll see a pretty unlikely, but very USF-friendly scenario after the jump.

I'll be honest. USF pretty much has only one chance at making the NCAA tournament, and it's to win the Big East. A couple of really bad losses in non-conference play might prove to be too big of a mountain to climb to get in on RPI rankings (They currently stand at #79 after the DePaul game). But stay with me. The Bulls aren't totally out of it. If they finish in the top half of the Big East standings at the end of the regular season, they'll get a good seeding and possibly have a good chance at drawing a weaker first-round team. I've drawn out a Big East bracket that, given how the current Big East standings are looking, has potential to be very realistic. Before you call me crazy and stop reading, please note that I know it is highly unlikely for these things to fall into their lap just as I've drawn them. I'm only saying there's a chance. Anyway, as long as USF grabs a top-eight seeding, all they can hope for is for all the right teams to fall into place. Then, they can rely on some of the other teams to take out the top seeds for them. A very good bit of luck would send USF into an early-round rematch with Connecticut, a team who has been playing poorly in all the places USF has been succeeding. Here's USF's ideal potential Big East bracket (if you click on the picture you can see it larger):

Now please don't take this as a prediction. It's still pretty unlikely that the Bulls make it all the way to the conference final. I'm merely suggesting that there is a very good reason for optimism for this and coming years. Even a decent showing in the conference tournament might be good enough to push USF up onto the bubble. But they'll have to finish their business in the regular season first.