Know Thy Enemy: Epic Villanova Edition

The USF Bulls are back home as they take on Villanova in round two in another critical game for the Bulls.  After beating Pitt last Saturday, the Bulls at 15-10 (8-4) have another chance to notch a league win, but it won't be easy as the Nova Wildcats come to town.  The Bulls were able to beat them in the last game on the road, but expect a fired up team to test the Bulls on their home court.  To get a better inside scoop on the Wildcats and where they stand at this point in the season, I once again called upon my friend Miguel from the Biggest Fan of the Big East contest to get the inside knowledge of the Nova nation (make sure to check out Miguel's site here).  

1. In the first game, the USF bench was the real deciding factor in the game.  Jawanza Poland had 20 points and Blake Nash had 12 points and 6 assists.  How will the Wildcats adjust for the athletic bench of the Bulls this time around?

This is a harder question to answer since minutes will be stretched without Maalik Wayns and his production.  The team now plays Maurice Sutton, a 6’11” Junior who did average 10 minutes the past couple of seasons.  He has seen his already limited minutes dropped over this season to give room for Marcus Kennedy and JayVaughn Pinkston.  Since his addition back into the rotation, he has given the Wildcats much needed hustle.  In fact, he double-doubled for the first time in his career during the last Marquette game (which I sadly witnessed the team blow an 18-point lead while sitting right behind the sidelines).  Besides that, as much as USF won last the game, Nova lost it with poor shooting (37% fg%, 20% 3pt%), and need to correct that to offset the more athletic Bulls bench.

Villanova this year is one of the worst defensive teams statistically, there’s no easy fix for that.  Instead, it would be more easier, at the moment, to play a more efficient offense in order to control the pace of the game.  I would love to see the team play better defense, but it hasn’t been corrected this season and it may not be corrected by this game.  

2. USF held a huge rebounding advantage in the first game, outrebounding Nova 36 to 18.  What can Nova do different in this game to swing that number more in their favor?

It’s funny because Villanova is one of the top rebounding teams in the nation (top 30 by time of writing)…the problem is that many of those rebounds are the inherent result of poor shot selection by the team (especially recent first halves, as the first match between Nova and USF being an example), the result being more times the other team still finds the ball…luckily, JayVaughn Pinkston is starting to be more aggressive on the boards, collecting double-digit rebounds 4 out of the last 6 games. 

Furthermore, Mouphtaou Yarou has to find a way to break out of his funk versus USF; against USF he averages 2.5 rebounds compared to his 7.7 average over the past two seasons.  James Bell has been hitting the glass more since that Bulls game (2 vs USF, 9.0 average since then with 4 double-digit rebounding games) and needs to continue his trend.  The fact the team is now giving Maurice Sutton some run lately gives Villanova another big man in the rotation.


3. Maalik Wayns didn't start the first game with Jay Wright going with a bigger lineup to deal with the USF size and length.  Will he get the start in this game to give them a spark on offense after they shot just 20% from 3-point range?


He would have gotten the start this go around…but a MCL sprain puts him day-to-day and his chances of suiting up for this game are doubtful: so my answer is sadly no…people are highlighting that Dominic Cheek was making clutch shots to offset Wayns’s injury during our win versus Providence last week...I just want to point out these were the same people who made these:

There’s a possibility Cheek could have finally, FINALLY turned the corner, but I still have my concerns, especially since even during the first half last game he was still his turnover-prone, questionable-shot-selection self (word came that Wayns is expected to start this game however)

4. How are Nova fans dealing with a rough season and what are the expectations not only going into this game but down the stretch and into the Big East tournament?


I mean, at least they're finding ways to keep themselves amused during these dark times...

So it’s not as if campus has started rioting (that only happens when they make Final Fours)…it looks like as a fanbase we will enjoy watching the rest of the season and still hope for a late run into the Big East Tourney, yet understand that this season was not the team’s best and could only expect so much these final games.

5. Final score prediction for this round?

USF has a 2-game winning streak versus Villanova…and I don’t want to be categorized as the “good guy Villanova writer”:

but with that said, I do expect the Wildcats to rally behind Wayns’s injury and win a very ugly, very scrappy battle 63-60…third charm’s the time, right? (sigh)


Thanks again to Miguel for answering these questions.  Hopefully his final score prediction is wrong of course.