Wednesday, June 13, 2012

USF 2012 Season Analysis: Breaking Down the Schedule Way Ahead of Time

How many wins will the 2012 Bulls have?
The 2012 season is fast approaching and after finishing the 2011 season at 5-7 (1-6), the team is hoping to turn their fortunes around this year.  The team has a lot of talent and a lot of optimism heading into the year, but are they real challengers for the Big East title?  Let's take an early look at each game, make a brief analysis of the game, and try to predict how the team will finish in 2012. 

Game 1: UTC Chattanooga - September 1st

Early Analysis: USF has had success in the past few seasons against D2 opponents and UTC is another foe that should be easy to defeat for the Bulls.  UTC went 5-6 last season and they will have a hard time keeping up with the speed and depth of the Bulls.  It may not be the same offensive explosion we saw when the Bulls took the field against FAMU last year, but it should be a very decisive battle for Holtz and the team and the Bulls begin 2012 at 1-0.

Game 2: Nevada  - September 8

Early Analysis: After an early warm-up win against the Mocs, the Bulls have to head out west to take on Nevada and their unique pistol offense that has a new twist.  The team hired Nick Rolovich, the former OC of Hawaii and brings a unique passing style offense to a run heavy offense, so the Wolfpack will have a new look to their attack.  The Bulls, facing a 2 hour time difference, will have to figure out the new offensive attack and continue to attack on offense themselves.  This game is actually a real early testing point for the Bulls.  If they are able to take to the road early and come away with a real strong win, no matter how close the score is, I will have a lot more faith in the team and the season ahead.  For now, I will have them winning the game and going to 2-0 on the season.

Game 3: Rutgers - September 13

Early Analysis: The Bulls will be on a short week after facing Nevada on the road and returning home to face RU on a Thursday night (no Craig James, so that does help out).  RU is adding a new HC this season after Schiano came to Tamp for the Bucs and the team is looking for playmakers.  They added a great recruiting class, but lost a lot to the draft and will be going through a transition year.  This is going to be a real close game.  RU and USF always play close games that have big moments and while I am on the fence for this game, I have the Bulls winning it late and going to 3-0 (1-0) to start the 2012 season. 

Game 4: Ball State - September 22

Early Analysis:  The Bulls beat Ball State last season 37 to 7 in Tampa.  The Bulls had the big advantage of speed and depth in that game and just were too fast for the Cardinals to handle.  Once again, the Bulls are on the road and facing a new environment, but this game should not be a real challenge for the team.  They have the depth and speed advantage again and while the game may be close at the beginning, the Bulls should be able to run away late in the game and look for the home run threats like Lamar, Dunkley, and others to break out large plays late in the game and take care of business as the team runs to 4-0 (1-0) on the season, I'm liking this start to the season already.

Game 5: FSU - September 29

Early Analysis: Here we go.  A few years ago, the Bulls made a faithful trip up to Tallahassee with freshman quarterback B.J. Daniels and the team came away with one of the biggest wins in program history as they won 17 to 7.  Now, the Noles come to Tampa and will be looking to repay the favor in this game.  The Noles have been recruiting at the highest level the last few seasons and if the talent they have brought in continues to grow and lives up to they preseason hype, they will be one of the toughest teams to face this season.  USF will have the talent to battle them early and deep into the game, but for some strange reason, my stomach tells me the Noles will find a way late in the game to get the win and hand USF their first loss of the year.  Please don't come after me, this is just a brief preview and a lot can happen from now to the start of the season and I want USF to win, but for now, I see FSU finding a way to get their win as the Bulls drop their first game of the year, falling to 4-1 (1-0).

Game 6: Temple - October 6

Early Analysis:  Odd to see Temple entering the Big East this season as WVU leaves for the Big 12 (hate this realignment stuff, but we move on).  Temple is a solid team that won 9 games last season in the MAC and will be trying to get off to a good start in their first year back in the Big East, but the Bulls have too much depth for the Owls in this game.  While 9 wins is impressive last season, they didn't face a team like the Bulls and the overall depth and speed will prove too much as the Bulls role to 5-1 (2-0) on the season. 

Game 7: Louisville - October 20

Early Analysis:  The Cardinals are one of the favorites in the season and were able to beat the Bulls last season in Tampa, but the Bulls were very depleted at that time (Daniels was out for that game).  The Cardinals had another strong recruiting class and will be looking to build on the strong 2011 season and build upon the young depth they have.  This is going to be a real, real hard game for the Bulls.  This game hurts, but I think the Cards are able to steal a game late from the Bulls and send them to 5-2 (2-1) on the season.


Game 8: Syracuse - October 27

Early Analysis: The Bulls notched just win last season in conference play and it came against the Orange in their home stadium.  Cuse is once again thin at certain positions and the Bulls will have the depth and speed needed to win this game. While it may not be the highest scoring game (Cuse always plays the Bulls tough), the Bulls will be able to handle the pressure and continue their strong play in the Big East and improve to 6-2 (3-1).

Game 9: UCONN - November 3

Early Analysis: The Huskies were able to outlast the Bulls last season as they came away with a win during an ugly game.  In the loss, USF was unable to do anything on offense and a few plays by the Huskies led them to the win.  Now the Bulls get a chance for a little payback and with the question marks the Huskies have on their roster (like who is their starting quarterback once again), the Bulls should be able to run up and down the field on them and come away with a strong win, improving them to 7-2 (4-1) on the season.

Game 10: Miami - November 17

Early Analysis: This game is a complete toss-up.  Last year, the Bulls lost one of the ugliest and most frustrating games to the Canes in Tampa 3 to 6 as both offenses couldn't find their way out of a paper bag.  This time, in Miami, it might lead to a few more points, but determining who does the scoring is the hard part.  Miami has some question marks on their roster, but the Bulls have been a hard team to figure late in seasons.  In this game, going on gut instinct and trying to determine things this far out, I think the Canes win the game.  Please don't be angry at the pick, it's pure speculation and a lot is going to happen from now till this date, but it's a feeling I have and the Bulls go to 7-3 (4-1) on the year after this game.

Game 11: Cincinnati - November 23

Early Analysis: Last year, the Bearcats outlasted the Bulls, winning 37 to 34 here in Tampa and now the Bulls will look to return the favor on the road.  The Bearcats are replacing Zach Collaros, Isaiah Pead, and Derek Wolfe among others from last year's team, meaning the Bulls are the more experienced team (at least on paper).  While this game will be close (expect some points), I  see the Bulls outlasting the Bearcats and improving to 8-3 (5-1) on the season.

Game 12: Pitt - December 1

Early Analysis: The game last season when the Bulls fell 17 to 44 was probably one of the lowest moments in recent history. This time, the Bulls will be at home to end the season and the thought of revenge will be on everyone's mind.  The Panthers are in a transition year with a new head coach and new players at key positions (yes, Tino Sunseri is still on their roster).  In the final game at home, with the crowd honoring the seniors, it should be a very special night for the Bulls as they come away with a win and improve to 9-3 (6-1) on the year, grabbing a bowl bid.

What bowl game due to the Bulls go to?  Making an early guess at this point is hard to do, but as we will see when we break down the pre-season Big East standings, the Bulls might just miss out on a BCS bowl bid.  If Louisville runs the show, they could grab the bid and leave the Bulls one game out of history. A 9-3 finish is big and would be a huge turning point for the program and they can only open that the Cardinals would be upset at some point and the Bulls would grab the bid.

So what do you think USF fans?  Is this realistic?  Think I am completely off?  Which bowl game do you think the team will go to and will they win the Big East?  Let the debate begin.


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